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Washington, D.C. — According to information provided by a senior official in the Bureau of Labor Statistics late Thursday night, the unemployment rate fell to 8.7 percent from the 8.9 percent rate in February.
Although the three-tenths of a percent bears good news for the economy, closer examination of the payroll survey shows an even more positive forecast. According to the senior official who broke the 8:30am embargo, "I’ve been doing this for 23 years, and these figures are something I’ve never seen before."
The labor force — the total number of individuals employed or seeking employment — rose from 153.2 million to 153.9 million, the most since September of 2010. Normally, an increase of nearly 700,000 new individuals in the total workforce results in a temporary increase in the unemployment rate, until these individuals either find employment or leave the workforce again.
This is where the numbers defy conventional wisdom. Of the 153.9 million individuals in the workforce in March, 140.5 million are now gainfully employed. Not only people who had been previously discouraged have re-entered the workforce; many of these formerly displaced workers have already found work.
The rest is just a matter of doing the math. In the month of February, 153.2 million individuals were in the workforce, of which 139.6 million were employed. For the month of March, 153.9 million individuals were in the workforce, of which 140.5 million are employed, a net increase of over 900,000 jobs.
Let me say that again: 900,000 additional jobs.
According to statistical models, the good news will only continue. Because workforce levels have made a large spike toward pre-recession amounts, the unemployment rate can be expected to only go down as more individuals returning to the workforce find jobs.
The senior official was skeptical, however. "Our surveys don’t normally show this high a rate of employment from our repatriated workers. Our internals couldn’t have possibly produced this result."
The White House press office was unavailable for comment.
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